I found this article very interesting. As a John McCain supporter, I had almost given up hope with "Barack the Vote" sweeping the nation and influencing polls. Reading this article reminded me that we don't know what is going to happen until it actually happens. People may say they support a certain candidate, but when they are actually casting their vote, they can change their minds. This could be an advantage for either candidate. It is really easy to get caught up in the media, but when actually voting, a serious voter rethinks their decision and considers the actual issues. History has proven polls to be wrong, so I think both candidates should be nervous about the election. I don't think that Obama should assume he has won or that McCain should give up and stop campaigning just because of polls. With all elections, the position of President of the United States is not decided by polls, it is decided by the voters. Polls may lean one way, but it is the actual votes that count and decide our country's leader.
Source
Sullivan, Andy. "Are Polls Accurate in Presidential Race?" Comcast.net News. 30 Oct. 2008. 30 Oct. 2008
7 comments:
Hannah,
you make a good point, however I disagree with you on a couple different accounts. First off, despite the fact that polls can be misleading, they can also give citizens a very good idea of who the people are leaning toward, and who the real supporters are. If McCain supporters are not polling, it leads people to rethink his leadership qualities, which also leads to the decrease in McCain's likelihood of winning. I concur with your idea that both candidates should be biting their nails; however who said that Obama's assuming he has already won the campaign?
I do agree with you that polls are sometimes inaccurate. Like our newspaper that we got recently it had some polls with Obama being way ahead every other candidate, but we can't look to our school newspaper because its only Minnesotan and its mostly full of people who can't vote. I would say to use polls as a guide, but don't trust them too much. Anything can be skewed.
I've heard of this too, in fact, i was talking about it the other day. Most people only say they're voting for someone because of peer pressure, and because it may make them look good. Many of the people who claim they're voting for one candidate really vote for their favorite in the privacy of the voting booth. Sometimes people think it looks better to support a certain candidate.
You have a good point Hanna, polls aren’t always 100% accurate due to many causes but that doesn't necessarily mean there wrong. Everyone had good points saying they could be off because people under pressure to choose a candidate, embarrassment to say true views, and the fact there often only taken in certain areas all leading to inaccuracy. But I still feel they are pretty close to the being correct. Plus poles are just poles they aren't the deciding point in an election many people are still just going to vote for whoever they feel is best fit to lead our country so it's not over tell election day, McCain could pull ahead and win but Obama could also stay ahead and win. So if you’re not happy with the polls go and VOTE for who you want! (When you 18 of course).
I agree with you, nothing can be said by the polls. Truely, there is no way to tell who wins before you cast all the actual votes, but that doesn't mean they aren't somewhat accurate. Still, no one should be counting their eges yet, and I don't think either candidate is. I was listening to the radio recently and a lady called in and said that she doesn't care about any poll except for the cookie one at the gas station; there were 2 McCain cookies left and no Obama ones. This, perhaps, seems as good a poll as any. I also agree with Tessa, that sometimes it influences how people vote. There are so many different things you have to consider when taking in poll numbers, so it's hard to find the best one. In the end, the polls don't matter, who wins on election does.
What I found really interesting, is that there have been cases where the candidate is doing so well in the polls, that all his supporters don't bother voting because they know he will win. The other guy ends up winning in a complete upset.
However what I think the biggest problem of the polling industry is that the majority of people do not take the polls. They turn the polling agent down. This severely skews the sample size, which in turn, screws up the poll.
As a Barack Obama supporter, there is one question I must ask. Why? Why would you support John McCain and his idiot vp Sarah Palin?
Anyhoo back to the article. It is true that polls are inaccurate and nothing is certain until a person steps into the booth, but I think Obama is still in a very comfortable place in his campaign. The majority of the country supports him and he has such heinous amounts of cash that he aired a 30 minute obama infomercial. Even if polls mean little, John McCain should be worried.
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